SiriusXM: Still Not Ready For Prime Time

Demonstrating yet again that SiriusXM's promotions and marketing departments don't know their heads from a hole in the ground,  last night's "silver-platter" advertising opportunity on NBC's hit Summer show "America's Got Talent" (AGT) was unsurprisingly squandered.

"Ponderous" is the word that came to mind as I watched last night's season premiere of AGT fearlessly with my 6 year old daughter by my side. For many months now as I have viewed promo after promo for AGT each one heavily featuring SiriusXM's crown jewel, Howard Stern on their T.V. commercials, web-shorts, banner-ads, billboards and twitter mentions, I wondered what exciting new commercial SiriusXM would develop in order to capitalize on the hype generated by NBC's bank-roll.

I sat through the first commercial break... No SiriusXM commercial? "No big deal" I thought "They're probably waiting for the second commercial break to catch the late-comers." Second break, no commercial, "Hmmm, this is a familiar feeling... Something is wrong here." As the third commercial break came and went without a SiriusXM commercial, I thought to myself, "Why am I acting surprised?" SiriusXM has never once promoted their products effectively outside of a car showroom, and even then it's probably just an after thought "Thanks for purchasing your car from our dealership! Here's your keys and please drive careful... SCREEEEECH!! Oh yeah I almost forgot... Your car comes with a free 6 month subscription to... Where did you go? Oh well, yet another successful sale at a dollar over invoice... Good work Johnson."

The night proved to be a huge success for NBC and Howard Stern as millions tuned in to witness what The Parents Television Council had been warning them about. As it turns out, Howard Stern (a veteran broadcasting professional with 35 years of announcing experience) proved to be a heart-warming delight to the surprise of no-one, except possibly a vocal minority of closed-minded "offended-at-birth" types, other elitist obscenity alarmists, and their morally superior sisters of the "Culturally Unsuitable Naughty Thoughts Society."

I am now 100% sure that if SiriusXM continues into the future and remains relatively successful, it will be in spite of themselves. I even had this sobering thought last night, "If SiriusXm isn't interested in gaining new subscribers by informing the public that they indeed exist and scalping some viewers from NBC, and since I subscribed to SiriusXM to be entertained by the "no-longer exclusive" content created by Howard Stern, why don't I cancel my subscriptions and watch Howard on NBC!"

Bottom line: SiriusXM is clue-less, they have a great product, but they just don't care to tell anyone about it. They are not unlike the Dad who takes pride in the awesome Star Wars action figure that remains un-opened and in its original box that he has owned for many years and long before his children were born. Year after year the toy sits motionless in a hermetically sealed display case in his room. Although it occasionally catches the eye of his children passing by his room on their way to the back yard, it no longer beckons to them... "come play with me." The jilted kids simply decide to leave it alone and decide rather to go to the neighbors house where they are encouraged to "play" with "toys" labelled as "action figures." Shame on you Dad... You obstinate fool!

Howard wishes Sirius had gotten involved w/ his America's Got Talent gig. The promotions people should b all over it but they're ignoring it

— Stern Show (@sternshow) May 15, 2012

SiriusXm: MAYDAY! (Letting The Past Be My Guide)

    On May 1st 2012 SiriusXM (SIRI) will release 1st quarter 2012 financial results. This report will be significant for many reasons: Car sales have improved year over year, the new Lynx radio has been released, the online player and streaming mobile apps have been updated with improved functionality, time shifting has been implemented as well as the addition of Xtra channels, oh and Howard lost his law suit over subscriber goal compensation. The most significant to me (and what I'll be most interested in learning about) is whether or not the price increase that SiriusXM instituted on January 1st 2012 had any impact on subscriber cancellations (churn).

SiriusXM's self-pay subscribers are a combination of Lifetime, Monthly, and Annual payers. It is unknown how many are in each category, but it is safe to say that millions of subscribers have now had time to digest the increased cost of their subscriptions and have decided either to continue subscribing or cancel. Mel Karmizan stated on Jim Cramer's Mad Money, that the reaction to the increase has been "very modest" 2 months into the current quarter.

SiriusXM added 1,700,000 net subscribers in 2011 and has guided to add 1,300,000 net new subscribers for 2012, that is 100,000 less subscribers per quarter this year. I have received my price increase and have not decided to cancel. The true churn will most likely occur for the subscribers who listen only to the music channels, as it can be argued that ad-supported free music can suffice for the casual short distance driver and listener. The more diverse content listeners have come to appreciate a "one stop shop" for news, traffic, weather, comedy and music while in the car and will remain quite satisfied with the value of SiriusXM.

  My only other concern is the looming "sell in May" situation which coincides with the 1st qtr. earnings call. If you are a "long and strong" investor or a frazzled and blurry-eyed day trader, you are possibly recalling the past 2 years in (siri) from May-October where your investment descended, languished and recovered or just outright descended. Add to this the uncertainty that comes with an election year which typically freezes everything economically, and you are once again faced with the proposition to either sell before earnings, enjoy your profits and come back to (siri) with the return of the harvest moon, or you could continue to buy and hold through the summer and hope that the expectations can be beaten more soundly than a rosewood djembe during a middle-aged men's "Blame Thy Father" drum circle in a Oregonian sweat lodge.

Though I am confident that (siri) will beat expectations, I am content to sell my (siri) stock and keep my SiriusXM subscriptions while I wait for the personalized channels and On-demand listening of Satellite 2.0 (or is it Satellite 1.2?) which will eventually come as soon as the SoundExchange Mafioso debacle gets worked out. Many of you will disagree with me, but please understand, I didn't buy (siri) at $9 or at $.05. I have no children entering college for another 12 years and am not buying or remodeling a home or planning for my estate. So I will attempt to enjoy the summer on the Chesapeake Bay as I watch for the Herons, the Osprey, and those wonderfully inexplicable (siri) drops that allow for perfect points of re-entry. Good luck to all!

2012 Will Be The Year Of Sirius XM

As an investor in Sirius XM it is always good news to receive an upgrade and fun to watch the obligatory short-term bounce in the share price. The bounce is typically commensurate with the weight and notoriety of the analyst providing the guidance.

Over the weekend, Sirius XM issued an incredibly meaningful upgrade for its subscribers. Sirius XM has finally upgraded its mobile app for its iOS users, and for this enormously valuable (and long awaited) functionality, it is currently receiving the most quantifiable of upgrades, more substantial than even the most prestigious analyst could ever wish to give.

Sirius XM is now receiving accolades, gushing with sincerity and adorned with the highly coveted and elusive 5-star reviews from its current paying mobile app subscribers, and drawing the attention of incredulous spectators and has even raised the eyebrow of jilted ex-subscribers.

Over the past couple of years the Sirius XM mobile app was nothing more than an annoyingly clunky "promise-ring" marred with visible inclusions and out shined in an overly crowded mobile-music arena. An arena rife with precocious competitors comprised of the glimmering hordes of cannibalistic upstarts vying for their piece of the "cost-free" crown and moniker.

Sirius XM's mobile app subscribers have quietly suffered the shame and embarrassment borne out of the painful mediocrity of a loveless marriage and internalizing the invisible scars inflicted by a negligent partner in addition to the insidious nature of a protracted self-esteem deficit. These well-meaning subscribers strayed from the safety of their homes...

Read more on Seeking Alpha: http://seekingalpha.com/article/313355-2012-will-be-the-year-of-sirius-xm

Sirius XM: The "App" Pathetic Approach

...First things first. "Dear valued subscriber?" Since I have not personally received the email notification and have only seen the email second hand on several occasions, would I be correct to assume that I am not in the "valued" subscriber category? It certainly feels that way. Secondly, the perceived value of a subscription is a completely subjective premise. If you signed up for a subscription in 2001-2006, you will likely agree that both Sirius and XM have each added more variety and exclusive content over the term of your subscription and a price increase can be rationally justified.

If you signed up for Howard Stern, (as I did) the added value proposition becomes a bit flimsy, due to the fact that I am actually getting less value since Howard reduced his "live" weekly contribution by 25% and I have since been charged to use the internet feed, which was originally offered as complimentary, as well as the increased charges for additional subscriptions and new royalty fees. Upon the release of the mobile apps, Stern fans were shocked and dismayed after signing up for the $2.99/mo. service only to find that the "King of All Media" (some media apparently) was not available until his latest contract was negotiated and signed last December. To this day under the Sirius XM Appstore reviews, potential new subscribers are greeted with this horrendous and currently inaccurate 1 star review and rant that is visible by default as the most helpful: "No Howard 100/101?? Are you...

Read more on Seeking Alpha: http://seekingalpha.com/article/307359-sirius-xm-the-app-pathetic-approach

SiriusXM Vs. Artists' Rights And Royalties

In determining whether or not to invest in Sirius XM for the long run, it is important to first know the numbers. For the benefit of potential new Sirius XM investors or readers, I will run through the most well-known numbers. For the rest of the Sirius XM or Seeking Alpha addicts, bear with me, we will get to the good stuff momentarily, as the propaganda and posturing has already begun in anticipation of the new royalty rates to be determined in 2013. These are the numbers that are not readily available, yet are important to understand, as they relate to future costs and Sirius XM's posture towards content creators. I realize this article will require a bit more time to read than most with regards to royalties, but you will certainly be much more informed about the issue, even with a bit of my bias attached.

The recently reaffirmed guidance of Sirius XM for the remaining part of 2011 and the guidance for 2012 stands as an impressive testimony to the inexplicable durability of this highly discretionary service. For Sirius XM, navigating though the rocky tributaries of low-cost (and, ostensibly, free) competitors that unassumingly meander to the more treacherous and angrier seas of a extraordinarily turbulent economy has not been an easy accomplishment, though you wouldn't know it by these numbers.

Q3 2011:

• Subscribers Exceed 21.3 Million, Net Adds of 334,000
• Record Revenue of $763 Million, Up 6%
• Record Adjusted EBITDA of $197 Million, Up 16%...

Read more on Seeking Alpha: http://seekingalpha.com/article/305108-siriusxm-vs-artists-rights-and-royalties